Recent Analysis and Commentary
Iran Must Finally Pay a Price
Fouad Ajami
Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2008
We tell the Iranians that the military option is "on the table." But three decades of playing cat-and-mouse with American power have emboldened Iran's rulers. We have played by their rules, and always came up second best.
Iran's Choice: A Man in a Military Cap or a Man in a Military Cap
Amir Taheri
London Times, March 14, 2008
At stake are 290 seats in the Majlis, the make-believe Parliament set up by the mullahs after they seized power in 1979. Although relations with the United States, or rather lack of them, are not an issue for the 3,000 “approved” candidates, Khamenei is right in presenting the election as an indirect referendum on President Ahmadinejad's dangerous foreign policy. The issue is whether the mullahs will lose yet more control to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and, if so, which faction of the guards will emerge triumphant, the radicals or the realists.
Iran's State Within a State
Con Coughlin
Daily Telegraph, March 7, 2008
Nearly three decades have passed since the ayatollah returned in triumph to Tehran from exile in Paris, but many of those who were the original founders of Iran's Revolutionary Guards today hold positions of great power and influence, to the extent that many Iranians are now openly questioning whether there is any point in voting in next week's parliamentary elections.
Irresolution on Iran
Editorial
Wall Street Journal, March 7, 2008
The Bush Administration is hailing as a diplomatic triumph Monday's 14-0 Security Council resolution further sanctioning Iran for its nuclear programs. For its part, Tehran calls the U.N. action "worthless," and unfortunately the Iranians are closer to the mark. For a resolution in the making for a year, it turns out to be an astonishingly hollow document. It adds a handful of names to the list of Iranians who are subject to travel bans and asset freezes. It calls on states to exercise "vigilance" in dealing with two Iranian banks -- Melli and Saderat -- implicated in Iran's nuclear programs, but falls short of sanctioning them. And it allows states to inspect Iranian-bound cargoes suspected of transporting prohibited items, but only if those cargoes are being moved by Iran's national air and shipping lines. Good luck enforcing that.
Iran's Nuclear Threat
Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad
Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2008
Instead of slogans and obfuscations, the international community needs answers from Iran. The international community must be able to believe Iran's declaration that its nuclear program is for exclusively peaceful purposes. Iranian leaders must as a first step fully disclose past weapons-related work, and implement additional safeguards to ensure no continuing hidden activities. We agree with the IAEA that until Iran takes these steps, Iran's nuclear program cannot be verified as peaceful.
Iran Could Have Enough Uranium for a Bomb by the Year's End
Markus Becker
Der Spiegel, February 21, 2008
It didn't take long for experts to question the report's conclusion that Tehran was no longer interested in building the bomb. And now, a new computer simulation undertaken by European Union experts indicates that the NIE's time estimates might be dangerously inaccurate as well -- and that Iran might have enough fuel for a bomb much earlier than was previously thought.
Attack Iran, With Words
Reuel Marc Gerecht
NY Times, February 20, 2008
If the Bush administration were to use this sort of diplomatic jujitsu on the ruling clerics, it could convulse their world. No, this is absolutely no guarantee that Tehran will stop, or even suspend, uranium enrichment. But a new approach would certainly put the United States on offense and Iran on defense. We would, at least, have the unquestioned moral and political high ground. And from there, it would be a lot easier for the next administration, if it must, to stop militarily the mullahs’ quest for the bomb.
Iran's Parliamentary Elections: Assured Victory for the Supreme Leader
Mehdi Khaldi
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, February 19, 2008
As Iran's March 14 parliamentary elections approach, the prospects for the reformist/technocratic coalition are predictably bleak. Yet, President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad is expected to lose ground as well. Although his conservative critics are likely to pick up a significant number of seats, the big winner will be Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose role as arbiter and decisionmaker will be reinforced even more.
The Nexus Between Iranian National Banks and International Terrorist Financing
Shimon Shapira
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, February 14, 2008
On December 19, 2007, a U.S.-based law firm succeeded in freezing the funds of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) in France on behalf of American clients who, in the judgment of U.S. courts, were victims of terrorist attacks sponsored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The action taken against Iranian accounts in Europe to enforce U.S. court judgments was unprecedented. Presently, the freeze is being challenged in French courts; on February 24, 2008, a French appellate court will decide whether the freeze should be lifted or U.S. court judgments against Iran should be enforced. The recipients of Iranian funding, like Hizbullah and Hamas, have not only undermined U.S. interests, but also French national interest in the Levant. Moreover, Hamas has been designated by the European Union as an international terrorist organization.
Iran Scheme to Elude Sanctions
Farnaz Fassihi and Chip Cummins
Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2008
After several rounds of United Nations and U.S. economic and banking restrictions, Iranian businesses are starting to feel the pain. The measures are complicating how they finance operations, pay bills and export everything from pistachio nuts to Persian carpets. But the measures also are having unintended consequences, some not necessarily in American interests: They are strengthening business ties between Iran and some of its neighbors at a time when Washington wants to weaken them. They are providing China and other Asian giants with an opening to win big oil projects in Iran, as Western oil majors scramble for new reserves.
They also are rerouting money flows between Iranian businesses and their overseas customers and suppliers, pushing them outside of the regulated global banking system. Businesses are using cash, informal money transfers and banks that aren't monitored by international authorities. That has some economists, banking experts and businessmen wondering whether sanctions are making it more difficult to trace money laundering, drug smuggling and terror financing in the region.
Iranian Nuclear Rewrite
Editorial
Wall Street Journal, February 8, 2008
Give Admiral Michael McConnell credit for trying to walk back the cat. Questioned this week by the Senate Intelligence Committee, the Director of National Intelligence defended the "integrity and the professionalism" of the process that produced last December's stunning National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear program. Yet his testimony amounts to a reversal of the previous judgment.
Iranians Plant Their Flag in the Wilds of Nicaragua
Todd Bensman
NY Sun, February 7, 2008
Perspectives broadened suddenly in March when Iranians and Venezuelans showed up aboard Nicaraguan military helicopters. They had come to scope out Monkey Point's bay for transformation to a $350 million deep-water shipping port. The port idea is part a new diplomatic relationship between Iran and the Sandinista revolutionary president, Daniel Ortega, that has flown largely under American press and broadcast radar since its August announcement. Iran has since issued fantastic promises that would include financing a rail, road, and pipeline "dry canal" from Monkey Point to an upgraded Port of Corinto on the Pacific, hydroelectric projects, and 10,000 houses in between.
Still Trying to Squeeze Iran
Adam Zagorin
Time, January 31, 2008
A new U.N. Security Council resolution punishing Iran for its failure to comply with demands to cease uranium enrichment remains weeks away, despite last week's agreement on the matter between the five permanent Council members plus Germany. And the most positive spin U.S. officials are able to put on the new sanctions package is that it will carry the support of Russia and China. That support, of course, comes at a price: The new resolution is unlikely to be more than a mildly incremental increase of the existing sanctions package, which Tehran has simply ignored.
As the Enrichment Machines Spin On
The Economist, January 31, 2008
If only judging Iran's nuclear intentions were that simple. Contrary to the impression left by the NIE's published conclusions (the bulk of its analysis remains classified), a nuclear-weapons programme has three main elements: the design work and engineering to produce a workable weapon; the production of sufficient quantities of fissile material—very highly enriched uranium or plutonium—for its explosive core; and work on missiles or some other means of delivery. Although the NIE talks of a halt to Iran's “weapons programme”, its conclusions relate only to the design and engineering effort and past hidden uranium experiments . But the weaponisation work the NIE thinks was halted is easy to restart and easy to hide.
Iranian Threats and the UN Sanctions Debate
Patrick Clawson
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, January 29, 2008
Despite the regime's past and present provocations, however, a total ban on all Iranian exports is not the best approach, considering that a similar seven-year ban in Iraq (before the oil-for-food program) showed that such blunt-axe approaches to sanctions hurt ordinary people and do not necessarily change a government's behavior. Instead, the Security Council should design "smart sanctions" based on careful consideration of the four criteria below.
Iran's New Purge
Amir Taheri
NY Post, January 26, 2008
Events inside Iran, however, provide a different picture. The Council of the Guardians of the Constitution, a 12-man committee of mullahs and their legal advisers, this week rejected applications from nearly 4,000 men and women to run in the March 14 general election. Nearly all the denied applicants belong to the 21 groups designated by Western observers as "reformist" opponents of the ultra-radical President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The list of the rejected reads like a Who's-Who of politicians regarded by many in the West as "moderates" who would put the regime on a less confrontational trajectory.
Iran's Global Ambitions
Uzi Rubin
Washinton Times, January 8, 2008
Ever since assuming power in 1978, the rulers of the Islamic Republic of Iran have demonstrated an outstanding proficiency in melding tactical flexibility with strategic inflexibility. They have never wavered in pursuing their fundamental agenda, but have been ever willing to make the necessary tactical concession to walk around minefields. Theirs is a long-term worldview in which time is of lesser essence. Their goals are profound and global reaching. If the bomb-making part must be deferred to safeguard the more profound fissile material effort, so be it. This is typical of their modus operandi.
Raising the Costs for Teheran
Michael Jacobson
Washinton Institute for Near East Policy, January 3, 2008
In the wake of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran, questions are being raised as to whether sanctions and financial pressure remain a viable approach to changing Tehran's decisionmaking on its nuclear program. As evidence of this strategy's demise, critics point to the foundering attempts to negotiate a third round of UN sanctions against Iran -- sanctions that appeared imminent before the NIE's publication. While additional punitive measures by the UN are important and necessary, better enforcement of the various sanctions regimes already in place could have an equally significant impact.
Iran's Inner and Outter Circle of Influence and Power
Borzou Daragahi
LA Times, December 31, 2007
For years, Western analysts have struggled to understand the inner workings of Iran's leadership. To many, it is a government tightly controlled by the Shiite Muslim clergy. But the power of the clerics has steadily eroded. Increasingly, power is distributed among combative elites within a delicate system of checks and balances defined by religious as well as civil law, personal relations and the rhythm of bureaucracy.
The Clock Ticks: Sanction Iran Now
Matthew Levitt
Financial Times Germany, December 19, 2007
The latest U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities has been the subject of much analysis, most of which has been off point. The new estimate opens with the startling judgment that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003, which has led some to conclude sanctions are no longer necessary. They are. Indeed, the estimate's more significant conclusion is that the most likely tool to successfully alter Iran's nuclear calculus is targeted political and economic pressure, not military action.
Misreading the Iran Report
Henry Kissinger
Washington Post, December 12, 2007
The NIE holds that Iran may be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon by the end of 2009 and, with increasing confidence, more warheads by the period 2010 to 2015. That is virtually the same timeline as was suggested in the 2005 National Intelligence Estimate. The new estimate does not assess how long it would take to build a warhead, though it treats the availability of fissile material as the principal limiting factor. If there is a significant gap between these two processes, it would be important to be told what it is. Nor are we told how close to developing a warhead Tehran was when it suspended its program or how confident the intelligence community is in its ability to learn when work on warheads has resumed. On the latter point, the new estimate expresses only "moderate" confidence that the suspension has not been lifted already.
The Can't-Win Kids
Dennis Ross
The New Republic, December 11, 2007
Weaponizing is not the issue, developing fissionable materials is. Because compared with producing fissionable material, which makes up the core of nuclear bombs, weaponizing it is neither particularly difficult nor expensive.
Why We Must not Take the Pressure off Iran
David Miliband
Financial Times, December 6, 2007
There are three key elements to a nuclear weapon - the fissile material, the missile itself and the process of weaponising the fissile material for the missile. The US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear programme published this week suggests that Iran has put work on the last of these elements on hold. If so, good. But Iran is still pursuing the other two elements, in particular an enrichment programme that has no apparent civilian application, but which could produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon, despite demands to stop from the United Nations Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
How Much does Weaponization Matter? Judging Iran's Nuclear Program
Patrick Clawson
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, December 4, 2007
The just-released National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," is about weaponization, not the enrichment and fuel cycle issues that have been the focus of multiple UN Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board resolutions regarding Iran's nuclear program. The NIE only suggests that Tehran has changed its sequence -- something that does not slow the country's progress toward a nuclear weapon by a single day. Therefore, it is not clear how this report affects the current thrust of U.S. policy: to stem Iran's nuclear fuel cycle capabilities.
How Europe Can Pressure Iran
Patrick Clawson and Michael Jacobson
Wall St. Journal Europe, November 2, 2007
A combined initiative by the U.S. and individual European countries to press Iran may strengthen the hand of those in Tehran arguing for accommodation. It would also be a good way to show China, Russia and laggard European governments that with or without them, action will be taken against Iran. If they are dissatisfied with this approach, they should first spell out a realistic alternative that could bring Iran to suspend its enrichment program.
Another major victory for messianics
Meir Javedanfar,
Jerusalem Post,
October 24, 2007
While the world catches its breath after the sudden resignation of Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, questions are being asked about the background and beliefs of his successor, Saeed Jalili. The answers, it turns out, are troubling.
Ahmadinejad and International Law
Irwin Cotler, Jerusalem Post, October 3, 2007
A person who incites to genocide; who is complicit in crimes against humanity; who continues the pursuit of the most destructive of weaponry in violation of UN Security Council Resolutions; who warns Muslims who support Israel that they will "burn in the umma of Islam;" who is engaged in a massive repression of human rights in Iran; who assaults the basic tenants of the UN Charter - such a person belongs in the dock of the accused, rather than the podium of the UN General Assembly.
Iran's Economic Suicide
Stuart Levy, Wall Street Journal, October 1, 2007
Yet the regime continues to send hundreds of millions of dollars every year to support deadly terrorist groups abroad while the population is neglected. At a time of record oil prices, the country's oil revenue reserve fund should be growing to benefit the future of the Iranian people. Instead, it is being spent down to mask the effects of the regime's misguided economic policies.
Iran's German Enablers
Yossi Klein Halevi, Wall Street Journal, September 24, 2007
Why, then, the German obstructionism on efforts to contain a nuclear Iran? Business interests, of course, offer one explanation. Last year, German exports to Iran totaled about $5 billion. Though German trade with Iran has reportedly dropped this year by 20%, some 5,000 German companies--including major corporations like BASF, Siemens, Mercedes and Volkswagen--continue to do business in Tehran. As Michael Tockuss, former president of the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce in Tehran, boasted last year, "Some two-thirds of Iranian industry relies on German engineering products."
Escalation in the Positions of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
, MEMRI.org, September 17, 2007
In several recent speeches, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad outlined Iran's nuclear policy and set forth his vision regarding the interrelationship between Iran and the West.
Can Iran be stopped?
Zalman Shoval, YNetnews, September 3, 2007
A new pessimistic report jointly compiled by 16 American intelligence agencies noted that all efforts to halt or impede Iran's nuclear development have failed, as have the measures to end the support Tehran is granting various terror organizations in the Middle East, including Hizbullah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Shiite terrorists in Iraq.
Hit Iran where it hurts
Sen. Barack Obama, New York Daily News, August 30, 2007
For diplomacy to work, we need to dial up our political and economic pressure - not just our tough talk. Iran's troubling behavior depends in large part on access to billions of dollars in oil and gas revenue. That is why I introduced the Iran Sanctions Enabling Act last May, to build on a movement across the country to divest from companies that do significant business with Iran. This would send a clear message about where America stands, increasing Iran's isolation and hitting the Iranian regime where it hurts.
The Iran Dossier: Iran's Proxy War Against the US in Iraq
Kimberly Kagan, Weekly Standard, August 29, 2007
Iran, and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, have been actively involved in supporting Shia militias and encouraging sectarian violence in Iraq since the invasion of 2003-and Iranian planning and preparation for that effort began as early as 2002. The precise purposes of this support are unclear and may have changed over time. But one thing is very clear: Iran has consistently supplied weapons, its own advisors, and Lebanese Hezbollah advisors to multiple resistance groups in Iraq, both Sunni and Shia, and has supported these groups as they have targeted Sunni Arabs, Coalition forces, Iraqi Security Forces, and the Iraqi Government itself.
Congress's Ill-Timed Iran Bills
Danielle Pletka, Washington Post, August 28, 2007
There is growing recognition that Iran's nuclear activities must be stopped, and the voluntary divestment movement is gaining ground. Yet this moment of harmonious convergence -- possible only because of the gravity of the threat from Iran -- may come to an abrupt end if Congress has its way.
Michael Barone, New York Sun, August 27, 2007
Iran is the leading state sponsor of terrorism. The mullah regime is providing weapons to kill our soldiers in Iraq. It is working furiously to develop nuclear weapons. We certainly do not want to go to war against Iran — though perhaps we could do a more aggressive job of keeping the mullahs’ minions out of Iraq. But we have other weapons that are being deployed now — not by the military, the federal government, or officials in Washington, but by state government officials and legislatures in state capitals, who are working to divest their pension funds of stocks in companies that do business in Iran.
The Smarter Way to Target Iran
Patrick Clawson and Michael Jacobson, Washington Institute, August 17, 2007
On August 15, the New York Times and Washington Post reported that the Bush administration was considering sanctioning Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for its terrorist-related activities. This designation could have a significant impact, as Iranian leaders are vulnerable to the types of "smart sanctions" that would result. Finding others to join in this designation, however, would make it far more effective.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps, Inc.
Mehdi Khalaji, Washington Institute, August 17, 2007
Understanding the impact of Washington's expected designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization requires knowing what role the Revolutionary Guards play in Iranian society. Apart from being a military force with naval, air, and ground components organized in parallel to the conventional Iranian military, the Revolutionary Guards are the spine of the current political structure and a major player in the Iranian economy.
Why Europe Has Leverage with Iran
Roger Stern, Wall Street Journal, August 14, 2007
European resistance to American triumphalism has its uses. But with respect to Iran, Europe's behavior is downright dangerous. Our welcome guest, French President Nicolas Sarkozy -- who just visited President Bush in Maine after vacationing in New Hampshire -- could change this.
Here's the problem: The U.S. stopped investing in Iran's energy industry in the 1990s thanks to sanctions imposed during Bill Clinton's presidency. Unfortunately, Europe stepped in to fill the void, with state-owned oil firms providing capital and energy technology. Today 80% of the Iranian government's revenue comes from oil exports and sales. Without Europe's support, the theocracy's fiscal lifeline would be a very thin thread.
Bankrolling Iran
Rep. Mark Kirk, Washington Post, August 10, 2007
As Iran's Atomic Energy Organization moves toward its announced goal of operating 50,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges in Natanz, the World Bank is funding nine government projects in Iran totaling $1.35 billion - one of which operates in Isfahan, where Iran's nuclear program is headquartered.
Deterring the Ayatollahs: Complications in Applying Cold War Strategy to Iran
Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, Washington Institute, July 2007
Consideration of deterrence should not be read as resigned acceptance that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons. Quite the contrary: a strong deterrent posture implemented now could be a useful way of demonstrating to Iran’s leaders that nuclear weapons will bring them little if any benefit, and that the nuclear program is not worth the high political and economic cost.
What to do about Teheran's money-laundering
Michael Jacobson, Jerusalem Post, July 30, 2007
As the US presses for a stronger UN Security Council resolution on Iran, the Treasury Department continues its international outreach to highlight Iran's illicit financial activity. While the Treasury-led campaign has achieved considerable success, this initiative would be far more effective if the US was not the only voice decrying the risk that Iran's deceptive practices pose to the global financial system.
Dealing with Iran: Finally, a stick
Stanley A. Weiss, International Herald Tribune, July 26, 2007
The U.S. may have found a way to exploit Iran's economic Achilles
heel by hitting the regime where it hurts - the wallet. Alongside
recent UN resolutions freezing the assets of Iranian organizations and
individuals involved in the country's nuclear and missile programs,
Washington has launched a full-scale financial assault on the mullahs.
Halting Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program: Iranian Vulnerabilities and Western Policy Options
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, July 2007
Despite Iran's enormous oil and gas reserves, ironically, one of its most glaring areas of vulnerability is in the economic sphere.
Iranian vulnerabilities in the oil sector may in fact be growing. Iran needs to invest about $10 billion annually in its energy sector to maintain current output from its oilfields; however, Tehran is only spending a third of that amount.
For significant sanctions to be effective and genuinely sharpen the regime's dilemma, they must be accompanied by a credible threat of military force against the nuclear program and, to the extent necessary, against other targets in Iran as well.
Nuclear Juggernaut
Chicago Tribune, Editorial, July 5, 2007
After two rounds of tepid sanctions and years of fruitless negotiations, one thing is clear: This is not a country looking to use its nuclear program as a bargaining chip for something else. It is a country looking to become a nuclear power.
Making Iran Feel the Pain
Matthew Levitt, Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2007
The international community, led by the U.S. and the U.K., is now developing and debating new economic sanctions against Iran. This third round will be pivotal -- either by significantly increasing the cost to Iran of continuing to engage in illicit and dangerous activities, or by showing the regime that it can outlast whatever symbolic measures are levied against it without fear of being bled financially.
Economic and Diplomatic Strategies for Isolating Ahmadinejad and the Iranian Regime
Benjamin Netanyahu, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, July 1, 2007
The Iranian regime can be stopped. I have been encouraging divestment from Iran by U.S. state pension funds, which are a very large factor in the global investment market. These efforts have been working. And if these pension funds continue to divest their holdings from companies that do business with Iran, those companies' credit ratings will decline, their cost of credit will go up, plus they lose a component of their equity, and that is very powerful.
Europe Must Stop Iran
Dirk Niebel, Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2007
Iran is doing more these days than just ignoring global concerns over its nuclear program. The Islamic Republic is increasingly taunting the international community, making clear that it has no intention of abandoning its program and almost daring Western nations to stop it.
The situation raises serious questions and opportunities for Europe, which is increasingly threatened by Iran. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has warned Europe not to take Israel's side in any dispute between Tehran and Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, Tehran and its terrorist client Hezbollah continue to recruit and train thousands of suicide bombers for possible attacks on the Continent.
Israeli Jets Vs. Iran Nukes
Daniel Pipes, New York Sun, June 12, 2007
Barring a "catastrophic development," Middle East Newsline reports, President Bush has decided not to attack Iran. An administration source explains that Washington deems Iran's cooperation "needed for a withdrawal [of American forces] from Iraq." If correct, this implies the Jewish state stands alone against a regime that threatens to "wipe Israel off the map" and is building the nuclear weapons to do so. Israeli leaders are hinting that their patience is running out.
For Peace With Iran, Israel Should Get MAD
Youssef Ibrahim, New York Sun, May 31, 2007
President Bush's repeated vows "never" to allow Iran to have nuclear capability sound strong, but are boastfully unrealistic. Given the military's extensive entanglements in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the certain opposition of the American people, America cannot contemplate an invasion or sustained military action against Iran. So the most readily available course of action is also the one that has proved time and again to have worked during the course of the last 50 years and more: to convince Iran's ruling mullahs that the idea of using a nuclear weapon is unacceptable, indefensible, unjustifiable, and in the end can only lead to their immediate demise.
Another Iranian Milestone
Wall Street Journal Editorial, May 29, 2007
In 2005, the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate predicted that Iran would be unable to produce sufficient quantities of weapons-grade uranium until "early to mid-next decade." Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran was operating 1,312 centrifuges -- up from 164 just last year -- and could be operating as many as 3,000 within a month. That's enough to produce one bomb's worth of uranium every year.
Iran's Enablers
Danielle Pletka and Omeed Jafari, American Enterprise Institute, May 21, 2007
As Iran's violations of its nuclear nonproliferation obligations have been revealed, U.N. sanctions have been imposed and economic pressures have been multilateralized. Since none of this has stopped Iran's seemingly inexorable progress toward nuclear weapons, many have concluded that there are only two realistic options: war or engagement. In fact, it is too early to give up on multilateral economic pressure. There is significant unexploited potential for leverage against the Islamic Republic, because Iran is tightly bound to the world in a vast web of trade and financial relationships.
Nuclear arms would embolden Iran and encourage Islamists
Steve Huntley, Chicago Sun-Times, May 18, 2007
For years Tehran has been ignoring warnings from the West and the U.N. while forging ahead with its nuclear program. Just this week inspectors for the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran has overcome technical obstacles to make major progress in enriching uranium. Tehran insists this is a project to produce energy, not weapons. No one believes that its ultimate goal is anything but a Shiite nuclear bomb.
Iran's nuclear plans askew
Arnaud de Bourchgrave, Washington Times, May 15, 2007
A scuffle in the mullahs' nuclear wheelhouse? More than likely with the arrest on suspected national security violations of Hossein Mousavian, a former nuclear negotiator for the Iranian regime, and a diplomat widely respected by his Western European interlocutors.
Iran's Economic Crisis
Amir Taheri, Wall St. Journal, May 9, 2007
While social issues continue to poison life in the Islamic Republic, it is economic issues that spell the most trouble for Mr. Ahmadinejad's struggling presidency. Last week tens of thousands of angry workers, forming an illegal umbrella organization, flexed their muscles against President Ahmadinejad on International Labor Day in Tehran and a dozen provincial capitals. Marching through the capital's streets, the workers carried a coffin draped in black with the legend "Workers' Rights" inscribed on it. They shouted "No to slave labor! Yes, to freedom and dignity!"
Nuclear fever in the Mideast
Chicago Tribune editorial, April 29, 2007
Signs of A Spring Thaw
David Ignatius, Washington Post, April 27, 2007
Sometimes big developments are hidden in plain sight, and that appears to be the case with Iran and the United States. The two countries have moved over the past year from mutual isolation to the edge of serious diplomatic discussions.
Most policy discussions in the United States concerning what to do about Iran’s nuclear program revolve around competing timetables as to when the Islamic Republic is expected to have reached the capacity to fabricate atomic bombs. How much time do we have to let sanctions and international diplomacy do their work before a military option becomes imperative is usually conditioned on whether one expects Iran to reach its nuclear break-out point in one year or in ten years.
But there is another timeline we should be concerned about. Earlier this week, at a conference on energy security held in Berlin (co-sponsored by the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, The Nixon Center and the German Marshall Fund), a presentation on Europe’s growing need for natural gas noted that, by 2025, Europe will face a 25 percent gap between projected demand and sources of supply. Given that reality, there is only so much time before Europeans will decide that Iran, which has the world’s second largest reserves of natural gas, is a critical part of ensuring their energy security.
Cracks show under Iran’s strongman
Diplomats find it hard to judge who really speaks for Iran today. Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader, has the ultimate power but says little in public, while his president’s rhetoric is often at variance with more businesslike statements from other senior officials in parallel power structures. Iranian President Ahmadinejad, head of the conservative hardliners whose scant knowledge of the outside world is a source of pride, has found himself pitted against a group of conservative pragmatists such as Ali Larijani, secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, who represents a more sophisticated approach to international relations.
Squeeze Play: Approach Tehran with Sticks, Not Carrots
Dennis Ross, The New Republic, Apr 23, 2007
Why have sticks been more effective than carrots? Because virtually all members of the Iranian elite, including moderate ones, appreciate the value of having nuclear weapons -- they are a symbol of national power, they can be useful for deterring the United States, and they are seen as promoting Iranian dominance throughout the Middle East. No combination of inducements can match the value of having nuclear weapons. But the value of nuclear weapons has to be weighed against the potential cost. If the cost is international isolation and economic deprivation, the picture changes for a significant part of the Iranian elite.
Time is running out on defusing Iran nuclear crisis
Richard S. Williamson, Chicago Sun-Times, Apr 16, 2007
Bad Options on Iran
Mortimer B. Zuckerman, U.S. News & World Report, Apr 15, 2007
Look behind the curtain of virtually every major problem in the Middle East, and you will find Iran: killings in Iraq; arms and money for Hizbullah's assaults on Israel and Hizbullah's attempts to usurp the elected government of Lebanon; support of Syria as the hotelier of the region's major terrorist groups; support and training of Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and sleeper networks in countries beyond; promotion of a messianic revolutionary ideology that has deepened the Sunni-Shiite divide; the reckless seizure of 15 British sailors and marines as hostages; and defiance of the UN in pursuit of nuclear weapons. Only the U.S. has the will and the capacity to constrain Iran.
In Iran, Feeling the Heat
Jim Hoagland, Washington Post, Apr 15, 2007
The financial and diplomatic pressures orchestrated by the Treasury and State departments are taking their toll on Ahmadinejad's regime. They should be continued and intensified where possible.
Iran may be spinning itself into a corner
Los Angeles Times, Apr 11, 2007
Iran's efforts to trumpet its nuclear program are cementing the country's confrontation with the West regardless of whether its claims this week of technological progress are true.
Iran's tough swagger can’t disguise a basic weakness
Bronwen Maddox, Times (UK), Apr 11, 2007
Iran Inches Toward Nuclear Red Line
Lionel Beehner, Council on Foreign Relations, Apr 11, 2007
Iran's announcement of "industrial level" enrichment, if true, could jeopardize negotiations underway between the Iranians and Europeans on the current standoff at the UN Security Council. It also could affect the inspections process in place as set forth by the International Atomic Energy Agency, as well as call into question Iran’s membership in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Although Tehran wants to be seen as in good standing within the letter of international law, if it were to cross the nuclear red line, that could mean further isolation, stricter sanctions, and a potential military strike.
Weighing the Iranian Nuclear Threat
Michael Hirsh, Newsweek, Apr 9, 2007
Iranian President Ahmadinejad announced his country is now capable of producing 'industrial-scale' uranium enrichment. Assessing that boast—and what it means for nuclear negotiations.
Detente with Tehran?
Ilan Berman, Washington Times, Apr 9, 2007
These days, you do not have to look very far to find signs of Iranian troublemaking. The Islamic Republic's nuclear program -- which its firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has likened to a train "with no brakes" -- shows no signs of running out of steam despite the best efforts of the United Nations Security Council. At face value, a "detente" indeed seems tempting. Yet there are at least three reasons why "doing a deal" with the Islamic Republic is both potentially disastrous and ultimately self-defeating.
Why Sanctions are Working
Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek, April 9, 2007
Over the past two months, events have made clear that the containment strategy is working—to a point.
What It Means If the Button Is Pushed
Reuven Pedatzur and Yitzhak Yaakov, Haaretz, April 5, 2007
Apparently in Israel, some of those involved in formulating policy in the face of the anticipated Iranian nuclear threat are convinced that a nuclear war can be won, a nuclear strike is survivable, and an active and optimistic society can be rebuilt. Such claims are generally based on game theory and war games that would result in a severe blow to the Israeli population, but one that we could live with. Anyone wishing to adopt these optimistic scenarios should look at the estimates of the damage that a nuclear strike in the heart of Greater Tel Aviv would wreak.
Iran Forces Israeli Rethink
Simon Tisdall, Guardian, April 2, 2007
Uzi Arad, former director of intelligence at Israel's spy agency, Mossad, has made a lifetime's study of revolutionary Iran. If international sanctions and diplomatic arm-twisting fail to halt its suspect nuclear activities, he is clear what the west must do: bomb Tehran. “A military strike may be easier than you think. It wouldn't just be aimed at the nuclear sites. It would hit military and security targets, industrial and oil-related targets such as Kharg island [Iran's main oil export terminal in the Gulf], and regime targets ... Iran is much more vulnerable than people realise."
The Myth of Moderate Mullahs: It's Still Khomeini's Iran
Reuel Marc Gerecht, Weekly Standard, March 19, 2007
Are the clerical elite and their praetorians - the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the thuggish Basij, and the killers of the Ministry of Intelligence - still running a revolutionary enterprise within which they see themselves as the ideological vanguard of the nation and Islam? Yes, absolutely. To a striking degree, the ruling elite has maintained its sense of religious mission, while the Iranian people, especially the young who don't remember the charisma of Khomeini, have gone cold. For the vast majority of Iranians, an Islamic missionary spirit is no longer happily married to the national identity.
What Was Once a Revolutionary Guard Is Now Just a Mafia
Mohsen Sazegara, The Forward, March 16, 2007
Today the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution - known in English as the Revolutionary Guard - is a mafia-like organization with a corrupting influence on Iran's army, police, media, industries, judiciary and government.
As originally planned, the Revolutionary Guard was to be, quite literally, a people's army - not, as it has become, a force separate from the general public, let alone opposed to it. The Revolutionary Guard was no longer a people's army, just another coercive force at the service of the ruling establishment.
Although I was involved with the Revolutionary Guard at its birth, in 2003 I was arrested and imprisoned by the secret intelligence unit run by the Revolutionary Guard.
Engaging Syria Won't Affect Iranian Nukes
Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, Middle East Review of International Affairs, March 2007
The nuclear threat in Iran will exist even if Syria completely cuts its ties with the country. Therefore, there is no real basis for those who say that the political process with Syria will help us against the Iranians. This is an illusion. The nuclear threat must be dealt with directly with the Iranians. There is no way to get around this by dealing with the Syrians.
The Negotiations Hoax
Michael A. Ledeen, National Review, March 1, 2007
We have been negotiating with the Iranian mullahs ever since the 1979 revolution, participating in countless face-to-face encounters and meetings. The lack of any tangible result is obvious. Ken Pollack, who was involved in many of these efforts, discusses the long, sad history of these failed negotiations in The Persian Puzzle. Those who still dream of the grand bargain must explain to us why there is anything different today that might make a bargain with the Iranians more likely than it has been for the last 28 years. Certainly the Iranians have shown no desire for reconciliation; quite the contrary. The Supreme Leader is the same fanatic as he was then, in terrible health to be sure, but no friendlier towards satanic negotiators. The only big change in Tehran personnel is the president. Instead of Khatami-the-Reformer we've got Ahmadinejad, Hitler's great admirer. I don't think that is an improvement.
The real history of U.S.-Iranian relations suggests very strongly that the only possible winners in such talks will be the mullahs. They will gain more time to organize their war against us, and to build atomic bombs.
In Iran, Train with 'No Brakes' About to Hit Ahmadinejad
Alireza Jafarzadeh, Fox News, February 28, 2007
Iran's economy is in shambles, and the inflation rate, officially in the double digits, has skyrocketed in recent months. By various accounts, the majority of the population in the oil-rich country lives below the poverty line. Iran’s oil exports, which constitute 85 percent of its export revenue, are second in quantity only to Saudi Arabia, and yet poor policies mean Iran imports more gasoline than any country except the United States.
To be truly effective, the international community needs to expand the current measures to include arms, technological, oil and diplomatic sanctions. In addition to making life difficult for Tehran’s rulers, such sanctions would send a strong signal to the Iranian people that the international community is ready to support their efforts in opposing the clerical regime and establishing democracy in the country.
Iran and North Korea Military Cooperation: A Partnership Within the "Axis of Evil"
Alon Levkowitz, Center of Iranian Studies, Tel Aviv University, February 27, 2007
Signals from Teheran
David Ignatius, Washington Post, February 23, 2007
U.S. and European officials think Iran's new interest in negotiations is a sign that pressure on Tehran is working. The campaign includes the initial U.N. sanctions resolution, which shook the Iranians because it was backed by Russia and China; tough U.S. banking sanctions, accompanied by a successful Treasury Department push to dissuade European and Japanese banks from lending to Iran; and calculated muscle-flexing by the Bush administration, which has sent an additional aircraft carrier task force to the Persian Gulf and seized Iranian operatives inside Iraq.
Table Talk
Michael Rubin and Danielle Pletka, WSJ, February 21, 2007
he Security Council has spoken. To change course now would signal the impotence of international institutions and multilateral diplomacy. History shows that when the supreme leader believes Western resolve is faltering, Iran will be more defiant and dangerous. Now is not the time to talk. If Washington and Europe truly believe in the primacy of multilateralism and diplomacy, now is the time to ratchet up the pressure.
"Must Read" Analysis and Commentary
Israel’s Worst Nightmare
Yossi Klein Halevy and Michael Oren, The New Republic, January 26, 2007
According to Israeli intelligence, Iran will be able to produce a nuclear bomb as soon as 2009. In Washington, fear is growing that either Israel or the Bush administration plans to order strikes against Iran. In Israel, however, there is fear of a different kind. Israelis worry not that the West will act rashly, but that it will fail to act at all. And, while strategists here differ over the relative efficacy of sanctions or a military strike, nearly everyone agrees on this point: Israel cannot live with a nuclear Iran.
What a nuclear Iran would do
Barry Rubin, Jerusalem Post, January 28, 2007
[The danger of the Iranian nuclear program] is not a matter just of Iran possibly firing nuclear-tipped missiles at Israel, or more extreme officials handing such weapons to terrorists. These are extremely dangerous outcomes that might or might not happen. What should be more compelling is what would definitely take place: a gigantic shift in the regional balance of power against Western interests, and toward violence and instability.
Forcing Hard Choices on Tehran: Raising the Costs of Iran’s Nuclear Program
Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, November 2006
In light of the drawbacks of the current Security Council–centered approach, the United States should augment steps taken at the UN with parallel unilateral and multilateral measures. Such a mix of measures is more likely to make clear to Iran in the starkest possible terms that it confronts a choice between (a) retaining its nuclear program and suffering severe sanctions, or (b) abandoning the more problematic aspects of its program and receiving a package of political, economic, and security benefits. At the same time, the United States should not undercut the European-led UN effort by agreeing to bilateral U.S.-Iran negotiations that exclude the Europeans.
Iran’s Developing Nuclear and Missile Programs, Anthony H. Cordsman, February 15, 2007
An analysis and summary of the ongoing development of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, including a list of major IAEA and UN violations.
Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Latest Developments and Next Steps (webcast), March 15, 2007
Statements and testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs by The Honorable Brad Sherman, The Honorable Gary J. Ackerman, Mr. David Albright, Matthew Levitt, Ph.D., Daniel Byman, Ph.D., Mr. Ilan Berman
The Implications of a Nuclear Iran, Dr. Ephraim Sneh, JCPA, March 25, 2007
Iran's concrete aspiration is to build a Shiite- or Iran-dominated belt from Afghanistan
to the Mediterranean. Iran is already meddling in Afghanistan, and succeeded in taking advantage of the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq in order to build a Shiite state in the south, which very clearly is under direct Iranian influence. Iran has infiltrated and captured several key positions in the central government of Baghdad, and thus has a growing influence there. Iran is also involved in the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq to discourage a Kurdish national movement there and in Iran. It has succeeded in building a strategic alliance with Syria. The last step to enable Iran to reach the Mediterranean is Lebanon. A third of the Lebanese are Shiites, and Iran is trying to take over the Lebanese government by using the political power of the Shiites in Lebanon.
Pulling Tehran's Purse Stings: Leveraging Sanctions and Market Forces to Alter Iranian Behavior
Matthew Levitt, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, March 15, 2007
Already there are signs of domestic discontent within Iran, and targeted financial measures can produce further political pressure within Iran. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, the nuclear crisis (and subsequent sanctions) "is imposing a heavy opportunity cost on Iran's economic development, slowing down investment in the oil, gas and petrochemical sectors, as well as in critical infrastructure projects, including electricity." A 2003 World Bank report on Iran noted the "daunting unemployment challenge" facing Iran and concluded: "Unless the country moves quickly to a faster path of growth with employment, discontent and disenchantment could threaten its economic, social and political system."
We are already seeing the benefits of this strategy. Banks like UBS, HSBC, Standard Chartered, Commerzbank, and others have decided to cut off or curtail dealings with Iran. Some foreign banks are refusing to issue new letters of credit to Iranian businesses, and Iran now faces a standoff with Russia over Tehran's apparent desire to pay for Bushehr in euros, not dollars. Targeted financial measures are not symbolic sanctions. They have teeth, and Tehran is wary of their bite.
What Jewish organizations must do about Iran
Shlomo Avineri, Jerusalem Post, January 27, 2007
Up till now Ahmadinejad's Holocaust statements have been duly condemned by most Western governments - and then nothing happened. It is in the hands of Jewish organizations worldwide to make these statements an issue which stays on the international agenda.