The Iranian Missile Program

Missile Capability and History of the Iranian Missile Program (from the Nuclear Threat Initiative)

Iran currently possesses the capability to employ ballistic missiles and/or long-range artillery rockets against its regional neighbors, Israel and US forces deployed in the region. A large number of these systems currently possess the capability to delivery chemical, biological or radiological dispersion warheads. If conditions remain favorable, it will be able to extend the reach of its ballistic missile forces to include Southern Europe, North Africa, and South Asia by 2005-2010 and possibly the continental United States by 2015. A true nuclear weapons delivery capability could be obtained within the next five years. Any one of a host of international or domestic factors, however, could accelerate or delay these developments.

Click here for more information from the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

The Global Range of Iran's Ballistic Missile Program - Uzi Rubin, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

Click here for the full article.

Iranian Missile Inventory and Characteristics

For information on Iranian missile inventory and characteristics from GlobalSecurity.com, please click here.

The Iranian Nuclear Program

From “Iran’s Nuclear Program,” Congressional Research Service, December 26, 2006

Iran has had a nuclear program for close to 50 years, beginning with a research reactor purchased from the United States in 1959. The Shah’s plan to build 23 nuclear power reactors by the 1990s was regarded as grandiose, but not necessarily viewed as a “back door” to a nuclear weapons program, possibly because Iran did not then seek the technologies to enrich or reprocess its own fuel. There were a few suspicions of a nuclear weapons program, but these abated in the decade between the Iranian 1979 revolution and the end of the Iran-Iraq war, both of which brought a halt to nuclear activities. Iran’s current plans — to construct seven nuclear power plants (1000 MW each) by 2025 — are still ambitious, particularly for a state with considerable oil and gas reserves. Iran argues, as it did in the 1970s, that nuclear power is necessary for rising domestic energy consumption, while oil and gas are needed to generate foreign currency. Few observers believe that such an ambitious program is necessary or economic for Iran.

Iran has asserted repeatedly that its nuclear program is strictly peaceful, stating in May 2003 that “we consider the acquiring, development and use of nuclear weapons inhuman, immoral, illegal and against our basic principles. They have no place in Iran’s defense doctrine.” Iranian government spokesman Gholam Hussein Elham said in July 2006 that the Islamic Republic will never produce weapons of mass destruction. At the same time, Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei said in November 2004 that Iran would not “give up” its enrichment “at any price” and former President Khatami stated in March 2005 that ending Iran’s uranium enrichment program is “completely unacceptable.” Uranium enrichment can be used for both peaceful (nuclear fuel) and military (nuclear weapons) uses. However, two decades of clandestine activities have raised questions about Iran’s intentions, and Iran’s use of centrifuge enrichment technology makes detection of clandestine enrichment very difficult. In fact, the preferred approach to rebuilding world confidence in Iran since 2003 has been to persuade Iran to suspend enrichment and reprocessing, perhaps indefinitely.

What Inspections Revealed

In 2002, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCR) helped expose Iran’s undeclared nuclear activities by providing information about nuclear sites at Natanz (uranium enrichment) and Arak (heavy water production). Three years of intensive inspections by the IAEA revealed significant undeclared Iranian efforts in uranium enrichment (including centrifuge, atomic vapor laser and molecular laser isotope separation techniques) and separation of plutonium, as well as undeclared imported material. Iranian officials have delayed inspections, changed explanations for discrepancies, cleaned up facilities and in one case, Lavizan-Shian, razed a site. According to IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, “Iran tried to cover up many of their activities, and they learned the hard way.”

Among other activities, Iran admitted in 2003 it conducted “bench scale” uranium conversion experiments in the 1990s (required to be reported to the IAEA) and later, admitted that it used for those experiments some safeguarded material that had been declared lost in other processes (a safeguards violation). Iranian officials told the IAEA only in January 2005 of Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan’s 1987 offer of a centrifuge enrichment “starter kit.” In November 2005, Iran finally admitted that the Khan network supplied it with information on casting and machining parts of nuclear weapons.

Enrichment Activities

Inspections revealed two enrichment plants at Natanz — a pilot-scale facility (planned to have 1000 centrifuges) and a commercial-scale plant under construction (planned to have 50,000 centrifuges). The pilot-scale plant started up in June 2003 only to shut down after Iran suspended enrichment activities in December 2003. Since February 2006, when Iran resumed enrichment-related activities, Iran has tested small cascades (10, 20, then 164 machines) with uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6), all under IAEA safeguards. On April 11, Iranian officials announced they had enriched uranium to 3.5% U-235 in a cascade of 164 centrifuge machines. Construction on the commercial-scale plant was also suspended in 2003, but Iran announced plans in April 2006 to install 3,000 centrifuges. Its construction partly underground raises concerns about Iran’s intentions.

A recurring issues has been the detection of highly enriched uranium (HEU) particles at sites in Iran. Iranian officials asserted that HEU particles found at the Natanz pilot plant in 2003 were contaminants from foreign centrifuge assemblies, a first clue revealing the Pakistani A.Q. Khan network. Iran admitted to enriching uranium to just 1.2%, while the particles sampled ranged from 36% to 70% U-235. In October 2003, Iranian officials admitted they tested centrifuges at the Kalaye Electric Company using UF6 between 1998 and 2002. IAEA report GOV/2006/15 reveals that components also came from another country besides Pakistan.

Another unresolved issue is how far Iran has pursued more sophisticated centrifuge and laser enrichment technology. Iran admitted in October 2003 that it also pursued a laser enrichment program beginning in the 1970s, and admitted that it possessed more advanced centrifuge designs (P-2) in January 2004. Such advanced designs could double Iran’s enrichment capabilities, shortening the time, potentially, to a bomb. Iran insists that it received no centrifuge components after 1995, but admitted it received a limited number of magnets for P-2 centrifuges in 2003 and in April 2006, admitted to purchasing magnets suitable for the P-2 design. The IAEA continues to investigate this issue.

Plutonium-Related Activities

In October 2003 Iran revealed that it had conducted plutonium reprocessing experiments in a hot cell at the Tehran Nuclear Research Center and estimated the amount separated as 200 micrograms. The IAEA calculated that more plutonium would have been produced (about 100g) and Iran admitted in May 2004 that it understated the amount. Inspections also revealed that Iran experimented between 1989 and 1993 on irradiating bismuth, which can be used to produce Polonium-210 for civilian purposes (for nuclear batteries) or in conjunction with beryllium to create a neutron initiator for a nuclear weapon.

Finally, the heavy water program also has raised questions about Iran’s intentions. Iran first told the IAEA that it planned to export heavy water, then suggested that the heavy water would be used as a coolant and moderator for a planned IR-40 reactor for research and development, radioisotope production, and training. However, Iran’s design information for the facility, which omitted necessary hot cell equipment for producing radioisotopes, conflicted with reported Iranian efforts to import hot cell equipment. Construction of the IR-40 reactor has continued, despite the Board’s continued calls for a halt, although Iranian officials predict that the reactor will not be operational until 2011. The heavy water production plant reportedly has been operational since 2004, and in August 2006, Iranian officials announced they would double its production.

Significance for a Nuclear Weapons Program

Iran is likely years away from producing weapons-grade plutonium or highly enriched uranium. The Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 2, 2006 that “We judge that Tehran probably does not yet have a nuclear weapon and probably has not yet produced or acquired the fissile material.” According to one report, the 2005 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran assesses that it will be 10 years before Iran has a bomb. That said, Iran has pursued three different methods of enriching uranium and has experimented with separating plutonium, suggesting a steady accrual of expertise in weapons-relevant areas, according to some observers. If Iran received the same nuclear weapon design that A.Q. Khan gave Libya, the remaining technical hurdle (albeit the most difficult) would be fissile material production.

Calculations of nuclear weapons production are generally based on estimates of fissile material production. One calculation is that a cascade of 1000 P-1 centrifuges could produce one bomb’s worth of HEU (25 kg) in 2.2 to 2.7 months; and that a cascade of 3000 P-1 centrifuges could produce the same amount in 330 days. However, such an estimate assumes that Iran has the necessary amount and quality of uranium hexafluoride to feed the enrichment plant, the necessary components for building 1000 or 3000 centrifuges, and the necessary engineering skills to keep such cascades operating with few mishaps and little downtime. In short, Iran’s limited experience in enrichment so far should not be equated yet with an ability to operate an industrial-scale enrichment plant for peaceful or weapons purposes.